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Cash Flow Forecasting: A Simple Model for Non-Finance Founders
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Blogs & Insights
May 8, 2026

Cash Flow Forecasting: A Simple Model for Non-Finance Founders

No accounting degree needed. A step-by-step guide to building a 12-week cash flow forecast that actually helps you make decisions.

8 min read
Cash Flow Forecasting: A Simple Model for Non-Finance Founders
The answer in 30 seconds

30 May
2025
Decree took legal effect
30 May
2026
Statutory adjustment milestone under Article 18
AED 50k
– 2M
Fine range for Article 6(1) breaches
5 years
Emissions records retention period
Compliance timeline
Where the law stands today

The adjustment window has closed. If your business has been designated for Article 6 reporting, compliance is an immediate obligation rather than a future project.

2024
Federal Decree-Law No. 11 of 2024 issued. Dubai Law No. 11 establishes DECCA.
Enacted
30 May 2025
Decree becomes effective. Article 18 opens a one-year adjustment period.
In force
30 May 2026
Statutory milestone to adjust status, unless extended by Cabinet resolution.
Passed
Today
Designated sources should hold an evidence-backed inventory, reduction plan and five-year records.
Act now
Interactive · Emissions scope explorer
Where your emissions actually sit

Choose the profile closest to your business. These are indicative starting proportions to help you prioritise data collection — not a substitute for measuring your own activity data.

Scope 1Owned vehicles, generators, refrigerants
10%
Scope 2Purchased electricity and district cooling
55%
Scope 3Travel, deliveries, purchased goods, waste
35%
Interactive · Statutory penalty range
What Article 15 and 16 actually expose you to

Article 15 sets a fine of AED 50,000 to AED 2 million for breaches of Article 6(1). Article 16 doubles the penalty where the same violation recurs within two years of a final conviction. This illustrates the statutory range only — it is not a prediction of any enforcement outcome.

Minimum — AED 50,000Maximum — AED 2M
Indicative statutory exposure
AED 440,000
Within the Article 15 range for a first violation of Article 6(1).
Interactive · Readiness self-assessment
Can you answer yes to all twelve?

This is the checklist we work through with clients in a Federal Decree 11 readiness review. Tick what is genuinely in place and evidenced — not what is planned.

Readiness progress
0 / 12
items evidenced
Tick the items your business can evidence today.
Not confident in every answer?
Aurlume runs a fixed-scope Federal Decree 11 readiness review for Dubai SMEs: applicability assessment, Scope 1 and 2 baseline, methodology documentation and an inspection-ready file.
Book a readiness review
Frequently asked questions
Federal Decree 11, answered directly

 

Yes. Article 3 states that the decree applies to sources in the UAE, including free zones. The detailed Article 6 reporting obligation still depends on designation by MOCCAE and the relevant competent authority.
The decree has broad scope, but Article 6 applies the detailed measurement, reporting and verification duties to sources determined by MOCCAE and the competent authority. SMEs should confirm their designation, sector rules and submission instructions rather than assuming a universal filing duty.
The decree became effective on 30 May 2025. Article 18 provided one year to adjust status, resulting in a 30 May 2026 statutory milestone unless extended by Cabinet resolution.
Article 15 provides for fines up to AED 2 million for violations of Article 6(1). The minimum is AED 50,000. The penalty can be doubled for the same violation repeated within two years of a final judgment of conviction.
Five years from the date of each emissions analysis. Authorised judicial officers must be able to inspect those records during the retention period.
No. That threshold determines high-emitting entities under the National Register for Carbon Credits framework established by Cabinet Resolution No. 67 of 2024. It is not a general exemption from the federal decree.
Article 6 does not expressly divide reporting into Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3. The applicable scope should be confirmed from MOCCAE, DECCA or sector-specific instructions. SMEs should at least prepare reliable Scope 1 and Scope 2 data and screen material Scope 3 sources.
Dubai Law No. 11 of 2024 identifies DECCA as the official Dubai entity responsible for climate change and environmental plans, policies and strategies, including in special development zones and free zones. Federal and sector authorities may also have roles.
About the authors

Aurlume Finance Advisory

Aurlume Consultants is an execution-first management consultancy for SMEs in Dubai and across the GCC. Our finance practice builds the reporting and control layer that owner-managed businesses usually outgrow before they replace: rolling cash flow forecasts, management accounts leadership can actually read, margin analysis by product or service line, and a month-end close that finishes on time.

We work on fixed scopes, and we build models your team can run without us.

50+
Companies scaled across the UAE and GCC
2.8×
Average revenue lift across engagements
2 days
Typical response time to a new enquiry
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This article provides general information and does not constitute financial, tax or accounting advice. Businesses should confirm their position with a qualified UAE accountant, auditor or tax adviser before acting.
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